CPI Numbers coming up

The market is expecting 0.4% CPI. If the CPI is higher than that, consequences can have impact in the bond market complicating Bessent's job to convince the market that US finances is doing alright and will increase fear in investors about future potential default. Today we know that without food and energy CPI is expected to be 0.2%, meaning that food and energy should account for maximum 0.2% to stay in the expected range. With the attack from Iran and then from the US sinking several Iranian Tankers, oil prices increase, directly affecting prices at the pump with record prices in some states. It explained the market's expectation of the Fed increasing rates by 25bps going from less than 50% up to 73%. We'll see in the next article how the market participants are already trading the hawkish expected measure by the fed. Raphael